ROME / RankWire.AI / – According to the Food and Agriculture Organization, worldwide cereal output is anticipated to reach approximately 2.98 billion tonnes in 2026. This represents a 2% decrease compared to the record harvest in 2025, with the latest forecast also 3.4 million tonnes lower than previous estimates. Despite this drop, global cereal production is still projected to be the second highest on record, reflecting a reduction of about 61.1 million tonnes from last year.
A significant factor behind the overall decline is maize, with production expected at 1.309 billion tonnes. Adverse hot and dry conditions led to reduced yield expectations across parts of the European Union. France and Poland experienced some of the sharpest downward revisions. Smaller reductions were noted in India and Paraguay, whereas increased yields in Argentina and Brazil partly offset these declines. Both South American countries are still on track for maize harvests well above their recent averages.
Wheat prospects have improved since the previous assessment, though global production remains below last year’s level. The Food and Agriculture Organization now estimates wheat output at 810.7 million tonnes, up 4.2 million tonnes from its earlier forecast. Better yield expectations lifted the outlook for Canada and Morocco. Projections for Russia and Ukraine also increased, though dry conditions led to downward revisions for the European Union and the United Kingdom. Overall, world wheat production is still 3.8% below 2025 figures.
Weakening maize outlook drags down global grain production
For the 2026/27 season, global rice production is forecasted at 553.1 million tonnes on a milled basis, representing a 1.9% decrease from the revised record set the previous season. Improved yields in Myanmar and Sri Lanka contributed positively to this outlook, but lower projections for China, the Philippines, and the United States limited the gains. U.S. rice acreage also fell to levels not seen in decades, reducing the country’s expected contribution to global supply.
Total cereal use worldwide is projected to reach 2.965 billion tonnes in 2026/27, marking a 0.2% increase from the previous season. Consumption of coarse grains and rice is expected to grow, while wheat use is anticipated to decrease from last season’s high levels. Global rice consumption is estimated at 559 million tonnes, driven by increasing food demand amid population growth. Feed consumption, including barley in China and maize in the United States, also supports higher coarse grain usage.
High cereal stockpiles persist despite lowered production forecasts
End-of-season global cereal reserves are projected at 947.2 million tonnes for 2027, which is 10.7 million tonnes below previous estimates but still 1.8 million tonnes above the opening stock levels. The stocks-to-use ratio is expected to be 31.6%, slightly down from 31.9% last season. Wheat stocks are expected to grow in Russia and Ukraine, whereas lower inventories of maize and barley largely account for the overall decrease in stock forecasts.
Trade in cereals worldwide for 2026/27 is forecasted at 509.3 million tonnes, an increase of 1.7 million tonnes from earlier estimates. Despite this rise, volumes will still fall short of the record levels seen in 2025/26. The increase is mainly driven by higher maize trade, with Argentina projected to export as much as 39 million tonnes. Global rice trade is forecasted at 60.5 million tonnes for 2026, which is 1.9% below the record set during 2025.