DUBLIN: Ireland is projected to miss European Union renewable energy targets through 2030, ministers were told in a Cabinet memo dated March 9, 2026. The memo said the State met a baseline requirement of a 16% renewable energy share in 2024, but is expected to fall short of interim targets of 27.6% in 2025 and 33.6% in 2027. The targets are calculated from renewables in gross final energy consumption across electricity, heating and transport, with an overall ambition of 43% by 2030.
The Department of Climate, Energy and the Environment said it is assessing compliance options to address the projected gap, including EU cooperation mechanisms that can credit a member state with renewable output generated elsewhere. One option under consideration is the EU Renewable Energy Financing Mechanism, which involves financial contributions to renewable projects in other member states in exchange for a statistical allocation of the energy produced. The department said it is analysing the value and cost effectiveness of available mechanisms.
Ireland’s overall renewable energy target for 2030 has been revised in recent years. Under its 2019 national energy and climate plan, Ireland set an overall renewables target of 34.1% for 2030 under EU rules in place at the time. In its updated national energy and climate plan published in July 2024, Ireland set a 43.0% overall renewable energy share for 2030 and outlined a minimum trajectory to reach that level, reflecting tighter EU-wide requirements and national commitments.
Targets and projections
The updated plan’s modelling shows Ireland’s projected renewable energy share depends on the policy pathway. Under a “with existing measures” trajectory, the overall renewable energy share is projected at 20.1% in 2025 and 23.6% in 2027, below the minimum trajectory benchmarks of 27.6% and 33.6%, and rising to 30.9% in 2030 versus the 43.0% target. Under a “with additional measures” trajectory, the overall share is projected at 20.3% in 2025, 25.9% in 2027 and 42.7% in 2030.
Recent official energy data underline how uneven progress can be across sectors. The Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland reported that renewables supplied about 40.7% of Ireland’s electricity in 2023, with wind providing 33.7% of electricity supply. The same report said data centres accounted for 20.1% of total electricity demand in 2023, a factor that can increase the scale of generation needed to lift renewable shares. Transport and heating remain more fossil fuel intensive than electricity in the overall energy balance.
Compliance costs and past purchases
A 2025 joint report by the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council and the Climate Change Advisory Council put potential compliance costs for missing renewable energy obligations at €0.5 billion to €4.4 billion under a “with existing measures” scenario and €0.2 billion to €2.6 billion under a “with additional measures” scenario. The report said Ireland is required to maintain a baseline renewable energy share of 16% and reach 43% by 2030, and it noted that Ireland’s renewable energy share in 2023 was about 15%, below that baseline benchmark.
Ireland has previously relied on cross-border compliance measures to meet EU renewable obligations. The fiscal council report said Ireland did not meet its overall renewable energy share target for 2020 and purchased 3.5 terawatt hours of renewable energy credits through statistical transfers from Estonia and Denmark at a cost of €50 million. The department said its priority remains supporting domestic renewable generation while it evaluates EU compliance options outlined in the Cabinet memo. – By Content Syndication Services.