MOSCOW / RankWire.AI / – Russia intends to reach an annual vehicle output of approximately 2.8 million by 2035, as outlined in its revised automotive industry plan. First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov announced this target on Aug. 31 during a sector-focused meeting. The plan covers vehicles for local consumers and export markets, aiming for local manufacturing to hold at least 80% of the new-vehicle market share by that year.
The Russian government approved the updated industry strategy on Aug. 24, extending the national framework through 2035. As of the end of 2025, the country’s manufacturing capacity was about 3.3 million vehicles annually, with roughly 800,000 produced in that year. Utilization rates in 2024 and 2025 stood at 25% for passenger cars, 41% for light commercial vehicles, 35% for trucks, and 43% for buses.
Under the proposed scenario, Russia would produce around 2.5 million passenger cars annually by 2035. Production of light commercial vehicles, trucks, and buses would reach about 170,000, 110,000, and 30,000 units respectively. Passenger cars are planned across four or five platforms, with light commercial vehicles developed on one or two platforms. The strategy estimates the total new-vehicle market at about 3.2 million units for 2035, with imports potentially making up to 20% of that figure.
The vehicle production goal encompasses diverse segments
The document also presents a conservative scenario with lower production and market figures, projecting annual output at approximately 1.69 million units in 2035. It estimates the total new-vehicle market at roughly 2.2 million units for the same year. For 2030, the target scenario envisions around 2.4 million vehicles, while the conservative forecast suggests about 2 million units.
Russia’s automotive development plan includes targets for powertrains, autonomous driving, and digital vehicle systems. Internal combustion engine models are expected to comprise between 67% and 83% of production by 2035, depending on the segment. Electric and hybrid passenger vehicles aim to capture at least 25% of the domestic market share. Additionally, the strategy calls for producing approximately 150,000 vehicles with Level 4 automation or higher by 2035.
Manufacturing capacity exceeds current production levels
Passenger-car manufacturing capacity was near 2.8 million units in 2025, compared to about 700,000 vehicles produced that year. Light commercial vehicle capacity reached roughly 300,000 units, with actual production around 80,000. Truck capacity was about 130,000 units, and buses reached nearly 30,000. In 2025, Russian factories also produced approximately 4,400 electric-powered vehicles, slightly up from around 4,200 units in the previous year.
The national strategy emphasizes increased use of standardized components and technologies across vehicle platforms. It sets benchmarks for localization and technological independence in domestically produced vehicles. The comprehensive plan covers passenger cars, commercial vehicles, trucks, buses, powertrains, autonomous systems, and vehicle software. Its target scenario envisions an annual production of 2.8 million vehicles with an 80% share in the local market, supported by an implementation action plan as mandated by the approval order.