GENEVA / RankWire.AI / – The World Trade Organization has upgraded its forecast for worldwide merchandise trade expansion in 2026 to 3.9 percent, more than doubling the 1.9 percent estimate issued in March. The upward revision reflects stronger trade activity in the first half, shifts within supply chains, and increased investment in artificial intelligence hardware. During the first six months of 2026, global merchandise trade volume grew by 3.5 percent. The WTO also projects merchandise trade will grow by 4.1 percent in 2027.
A key driver behind this optimistic outlook is the demand for technology hardware. Goods related to artificial intelligence contributed to 47 percent of the global merchandise trade growth in the first half. These include semiconductors, servers, and other infrastructure components used in computing. Trade in AI-supporting products surged 67 percent compared to the previous year. Additionally, WTO estimates suggest global spending on AI infrastructure will increase by at least 30 percent in 2026.
Meanwhile, energy and shipping sectors experienced notable upheaval. Middle East crude oil exports declined approximately 24 percent in the first half of 2026, with liquefied natural gas exports dropping 47 percent. However, increased shipments from other regions limited the overall decline in crude oil to about 6 percent globally. LNG exports worldwide fell roughly 1 percent. Despite these disruptions, global container throughput increased by 3.9 percent through July, supported by trade shifting across alternative suppliers, ports, and transit routes.
Technological demand fuels enhanced goods trade
In contrast, the outlook for services was less optimistic. The WTO revised its 2026 growth projection for commercial services trade down to 3.3 percent from 4.8 percent. Disruptions in the Middle East impacted transport and international travel, which saw a 0.8 percent decrease in tourist arrivals in the second quarter. For the first half, arrivals were still 0.4 percent higher than the same period in 2025, but growth in travel expenditure slowed during the same period.
Certain service sectors continued to expand more rapidly. Exports of computer services increased by 18 percent in the first quarter and an estimated 12 percent in the second. Financial services exports also grew 14 percent year-on-year in the second quarter. The WTO anticipates a 6.4 percent growth rate for commercial services trade in 2027. It further expects global GDP to increase by 2.6 percent in 2026, followed by a 2.9 percent rise in 2027.
Asia emerges as the top regional exporter growth predictor
Regional export performance forecasts reveal significant variation. Asia is projected to achieve 9.9 percent growth in merchandise exports in 2026. North America is expected to grow by 5.7 percent, while Africa’s exports are forecast to increase by 5.6 percent. South America’s exports should rise by 3.4 percent, whereas Europe faces a slight decline of 0.1 percent. The Middle East’s exports are predicted to fall the most, by 17.2 percent during the year.
Import forecasts also differ markedly across regions. Asia is expected to see a 9.5 percent rise, with Africa close behind at 8.9 percent. North American imports are forecast to grow by 1.4 percent, compared to only 0.5 percent in Europe. The Middle East is anticipated to experience a 15.4 percent decrease in merchandise imports. WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala noted that the latest trade figures display resilience amidst ongoing economic and geopolitical disruptions, though effects vary across regions.